Simply put, “expected goal difference” is the quality of the chances you make vs. the quality of chances you give away.
Whether you create a lot yourself or are good at shutting down the opposition, or aim for a mix of both, the higher your xGD, the better.
Chelsea are 10th in the league, but 5th in the table sorted by xGD. They’re just a shade behind Arsenal too, and could easily be fourth. As has been clear all season, we’re playing better than the points say. It will be a tricky gap to make up, but if we start getting a bit of luck things will look a lot brighter.
The problem is that the teams above us look strong too. We can catch West Ham, we can catch Manchester United… but Aston Villa and Newcastle look fantastic.
This really could be a thrilling season as we compete for European football next season.