The arrival of Marcos Alonso at Chelsea is set to heat up the competition for places on both sides of our defence. I don’t claim to be any sort of Serie A aficionado, but statistically speaking our new £23 million man looks capable of instituting a new dimension into our back-line.
The first order of business for Antonio Conte will be to decide who makes-way to accommodate the fresh-faced Spaniard. Unfortunately for Branislav Ivanovic, all signs point towards him being the recipient of our new manager’s metaphorical axe.
Ivanovic is one of the most decorated players in the clubs history with eight major honours, including two Premier League titles and the UEFA Champions League. When you consider his contributions throughout his Chelsea career, the £9million we paid Lokomotiv Moscow back in 2008 to secure his services looks a paltry sum.
However, in the past 18 months there has been apparent signs of the Serb’s decline – both physically and on a footballing level.
The alarm bells started to ring on the first day of the 2015/16 season, as Ivanovic was run-ragged by Swansea’s Jefferson Montero. He once more had his frailties exposed in a toothless home-defeat to Crystal Palace just a few game-weeks later, with his poor positioning proving costly in the visitors’ opening goal.
Perhaps the main concern over Ivanovic was that he was beginning to be targeted by opposing sides. In the first half of the Palace defeat, 49.6% of their attacks came from the left side of the field. Out of the three possible avenues for their attacks, left, right and centre, essentially half of them were focused on the frangible Ivanovic.
No longer able to deal with the barrage of attacks coming his way, Ivanovic’s growing defensive inadequacy was beginning to become a problem. Don’t just take my word for it, the stats are also beginning to reflect his clear-cut demise.
Ivanovic has always been considered a reliable defender, going three years without making a single error that directly lead to a goal in the Premier League in the period between 2012 and 2015. Last year, however, he directly cost us on two occasions. His tackling has also seen a stark drop in competency, in the 15/16 season Ivanovic’s tackling success rate sat at 45%, a huge 15% drop compared to the season before and a 24% decrease on his percentage if you date back to the 12/13 campaign.
Perhaps an ironic statement after I sang the praises of new signing David Luiz last week, but I can’t help but feel as though there is no room in an Antonio Conte defence for a player with any sort of defensive deficiency.
It’s not just when defending his own goal that Ivanovic falls short, further up the pitch he fails to match the exploits of new-boy Alonso.
Marcos Alonso (FB) – Serie A and Europa League 15/16 [for @MutherFekir] #Fiorentina pic.twitter.com/t9UTQGrgTY
— Football Radars (@FussballRadars) June 25, 2016
Above is a radar measuring our new signing on all key areas associated with his position. Alonso is strong in possession with an 83.6% pass completion rate and excels in the amount of key-passes he makes for a full-back, averaging 1.49 per 90. Out of every defender to play in the Premier League last season, Alonso’s tally of 39 key passes could only be bettered by Liverpool’s Alberto Moreno and title-winning Christian Fuchs.
Another stat worth sharing, though not shown on this graph, is that he created 43 chances for his team-mates last year, more than any other Chelsea defender (and notably, one more than Pedro).
So how does that compare with Branislav Ivanovic?
Branislav Ivanovic (FB) – Premier League, Champions League and Europa League career 2009-16 [for @Paddyc123] #CFC pic.twitter.com/tHQHt4gpNK
— Football Radars (@FussballRadars) May 27, 2016
Even at first glance you can see a clear difference between the two radars. Ivanovic’s is a much bigger sample size, with this data ranging across a 7 year period, because of this it’s important to remember that the majority of this data is taken from his prime years.
Immediately you can see that the areas we have adulated Alonso for are ones in which Ivanovic struggles. Last season Alonso averaged 1.49 key passes per 90, as shown by this radar across this 7 year period Ivanovic has averaged just 0.73; last season he averaged an abysmal 0.34, another indication of his decline.
The radar also suggests that Diego Costa may have something to benefit from the former Fiorentina man, as on average he successfully completes nearly double the amount of crosses as Ivanovic per 90. Alonso also completes more dribbles per 90 than the sluggish Ivanovic, which is another suggestion that he is the more forward-thinking full-back. (All stats not presented in radars are via Squawka)
Another factor in favour of Alonso is that there may be no settling-in period as he has played in the Premier League previously for both Bolton and Sunderland. As recently as the 2013/14 season his Premier League stats measured up to some of the best full-backs in the country. There’s also no doubt that the Marcos Alonso that Conte has brought into his squad is a much more polished and experienced player.
https://twitter.com/CriticalCesc/status/770305334728593408
Pronouncing Cesar Azpilicueta’s name may prove a struggle to some, but his inclusion in Chelsea’s starting eleven is no mind-boggle. Perhaps the best 1v1 defender in the Premier League, ‘Dave’ has received vast amounts of praise for his exemplary performances since joining in 2012. Gary Neville once claimed on Monday Night Football that he is “as near to perfect as possible when it comes to defending” – and who would argue with him?
In my opinion, the logical move from Antonio Conte would be to allow Azpilicueta to play on his natural side on the right of defence. Not only would a string of games on his stronger foot likely elevate the Spanish international to a new level, but it would also allow his compatriot Alonso to flourish on the left.
Historically, Conte has placed considerable significance to full-backs in his setups, whether it be Stephan Lichtsteiner and Kwadwo Asamoah for Juventus or Darmian and Emanuele Giaccherini for Italy. Whether the Italian intends on playing with wing-backs at Chelsea or continue with a back four, it’s likely that the contributions of our full-backs will be key if we are to succeed.
Azpilicueta and Alonso’s gain in this respect is likely to be Ivanovic’s loss, as he no longer appears to have the skill-set nor the engine to be a piece of Conte’s defensive puzzle.
Whether it be at right-back or in the centre of defence, Ivanovic can still provide quality in depth and his influence in the dressing room cannot be called into question. However, I think if we are to compete with the two Manchester clubs and get back to where this club belongs, we can’t afford to have such a blatant weakness in our defence.
